As expected Marco Rubio will be the next senator from the State of Florida.
Rubio Victory Speech
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Why Rubio Will Win Tomorrow
It was clear long before the August 24th Republican primary in Florida that the race would be between Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio for the Republican nomination. What wasn't expected (by Crist or anyone else) was Rubio taking a huge lead in the primary forcing Crist to drop out and run as an independent. Once Rubio had won the primary and the campaigning for the election began, the race between Rubio and Crist once again started as a close one. Only two weeks after Rubio won the Republican Primary in a rout, Crist was only trailing by 2 points in the polls. However, just as the Republican primary went, so did the polls for the general election. Rubio eventually jumped out to the estimated 17 point lead that he is currently in today. Meek took the strong liberal voters and Rubio took the strong conservatives (and probably many that simply lean Republican) leaving Crist with the remaining 30 percent of the vote in the polls. This put Rubio near 50 percent.
In Florida, a state with 11 percent unemployment, a number that has gotten worse since Obama took office in 2008, the citizens are not fond of the president and the rest of the Democrats. They have definitely latched onto the anti-establishment, tax-free Tea Party movement. When things are going this bad, people will often decide to go in the exact opposite direction. In this case, that would be Marco Rubio and the Republicans (backed by the Tea Party movement). As we have learned, mid-term elections often cause a shift in party power. We can refer to this year's shift as a "referendum" on President Obama and his Democratic Party. The electorate clearly feels that the President and Democrats have not done an adequate job since they took power in 2008.
Once Marco Rubio took the lead by touting the Tea Party mentality, he backed out of the spotlight. He had such a lead that he was able just to sit back and watch Crist and Meek struggle to attack him. Meek lost his credibility in Florida for even being associated with the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Crist stumbled along trying to paint himself as an independent even though he was a member of the Republican Party just months earlier. He was seen as an inconsistent, flip-flopping traitor. This did not sit well with conservative Republicans. It's clear that he will take some Democratic votes from Meek and some of the more moderate Republicans. However, with the anti-establishment sentiment in Florida, it is unlikely Crist will get much (if any) support from conservative Republicans. While Crist and Meek attacked each other as well as Rubio, their Republican challenger was able to sit back and talk about all the good things about himself, seeing as he had and has a very large lead. This strategy has a long history of working once a candidate takes a large lead, leaving his opponents to begin transparent mudslinging campaigns.
Crist might have had a chance if one of the other candidates dropped out of the race. Obviously Rubio was never going to drop out with a huge lead, so that would leave Kendrick Meek. There was talk that former President Clinton was trying to broker a deal with Meek to drop out of the race to give Crist a chance. However, Clinton and Meek both later denied the claim. If Meek were to drop out, a majority of Meek's votes would likely head toward Crist, giving him a large boost on election day. We can only speculate how that would turn out as Meek chose to stay in the race and essentially give the election to Rubio. There is a chance that some of Meek's supporters have realized he has no chance and may instead vote for Crist, but even if this happened, Crist would not receive enough votes to come close to Rubio.
Unless Marco Rubio is arrested in the next several hours, he will be the next U.S. Senator from Florida.
Correction: Unless Marco Rubio is arrested for a felony.
Good luck to all the candidates and thanks for reading.
Get out and vote!
In Florida, a state with 11 percent unemployment, a number that has gotten worse since Obama took office in 2008, the citizens are not fond of the president and the rest of the Democrats. They have definitely latched onto the anti-establishment, tax-free Tea Party movement. When things are going this bad, people will often decide to go in the exact opposite direction. In this case, that would be Marco Rubio and the Republicans (backed by the Tea Party movement). As we have learned, mid-term elections often cause a shift in party power. We can refer to this year's shift as a "referendum" on President Obama and his Democratic Party. The electorate clearly feels that the President and Democrats have not done an adequate job since they took power in 2008.
Once Marco Rubio took the lead by touting the Tea Party mentality, he backed out of the spotlight. He had such a lead that he was able just to sit back and watch Crist and Meek struggle to attack him. Meek lost his credibility in Florida for even being associated with the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Crist stumbled along trying to paint himself as an independent even though he was a member of the Republican Party just months earlier. He was seen as an inconsistent, flip-flopping traitor. This did not sit well with conservative Republicans. It's clear that he will take some Democratic votes from Meek and some of the more moderate Republicans. However, with the anti-establishment sentiment in Florida, it is unlikely Crist will get much (if any) support from conservative Republicans. While Crist and Meek attacked each other as well as Rubio, their Republican challenger was able to sit back and talk about all the good things about himself, seeing as he had and has a very large lead. This strategy has a long history of working once a candidate takes a large lead, leaving his opponents to begin transparent mudslinging campaigns.
Crist might have had a chance if one of the other candidates dropped out of the race. Obviously Rubio was never going to drop out with a huge lead, so that would leave Kendrick Meek. There was talk that former President Clinton was trying to broker a deal with Meek to drop out of the race to give Crist a chance. However, Clinton and Meek both later denied the claim. If Meek were to drop out, a majority of Meek's votes would likely head toward Crist, giving him a large boost on election day. We can only speculate how that would turn out as Meek chose to stay in the race and essentially give the election to Rubio. There is a chance that some of Meek's supporters have realized he has no chance and may instead vote for Crist, but even if this happened, Crist would not receive enough votes to come close to Rubio.
Unless Marco Rubio is arrested in the next several hours, he will be the next U.S. Senator from Florida.
Correction: Unless Marco Rubio is arrested for a felony.
Good luck to all the candidates and thanks for reading.
Get out and vote!
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Marco Rubio: Future Republican Star?
Rubio continues to maintain his 11 point lead in the polls over Charlie Crist. Republicans are so confident that he will win that they have pulled $4 million intended for campaigning in Florida and moved it elsewhere. The three senators had yet another debate Sunday. The debate was characterized as Meek and Crist ganging up on Rubio. However, Rubio maintained and defended his stances on issues and looked like the confident winner.
If Rubio manages to win the election on November 2nd, it brings up an interesting question for Republicans: Where does he go from here? Rubio is a young (and he looks it), up-and-coming Tea Party-backed star for the Republican Party. Oh, and one other little thing, he's Hispanic. In a party that lacks any significant Hispanic figures, he could be a key piece down the road. There have been rumblings of him running for president one day, but first he actually has to win over the Hispanic voters. He is largely supported by Cuban-American voters who are historically conservative. However his support of the Arizona immigration law has risen eyebrows of Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans who are usually against the law and typically vote Democratic. Rubio is the son of legal Cuban immigrants and believes the U.S. must be more strict on illegal immigration.
Rubio is quoted as saying, “I am the only candidate who understands Hispanics. People who criticize me do not understand that for this community, economic progress is the top issue, and what any parent wants for their children is for them to do better than they did."
As with any Tea Party backed candidate, he is hearing the calls of "far-right" and "ultraconservative". If the Republican Party sees him as a plausible future presidential candidate, Rubio must shake these labels so he can appeal to independent, more moderate voters.
Along those lines, he made this statement: "My ideas are the same as those of most people in this country, who see that the economy is not growing, who are having to spend more money than they have, and they want the United States to be the most powerful country in the world because that way, the world is a safer place."
Marco Rubio's Star Rises
If Rubio manages to win the election on November 2nd, it brings up an interesting question for Republicans: Where does he go from here? Rubio is a young (and he looks it), up-and-coming Tea Party-backed star for the Republican Party. Oh, and one other little thing, he's Hispanic. In a party that lacks any significant Hispanic figures, he could be a key piece down the road. There have been rumblings of him running for president one day, but first he actually has to win over the Hispanic voters. He is largely supported by Cuban-American voters who are historically conservative. However his support of the Arizona immigration law has risen eyebrows of Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans who are usually against the law and typically vote Democratic. Rubio is the son of legal Cuban immigrants and believes the U.S. must be more strict on illegal immigration.
Rubio is quoted as saying, “I am the only candidate who understands Hispanics. People who criticize me do not understand that for this community, economic progress is the top issue, and what any parent wants for their children is for them to do better than they did."
As with any Tea Party backed candidate, he is hearing the calls of "far-right" and "ultraconservative". If the Republican Party sees him as a plausible future presidential candidate, Rubio must shake these labels so he can appeal to independent, more moderate voters.
Along those lines, he made this statement: "My ideas are the same as those of most people in this country, who see that the economy is not growing, who are having to spend more money than they have, and they want the United States to be the most powerful country in the world because that way, the world is a safer place."
Marco Rubio's Star Rises
Monday, October 18, 2010
Rubio Will Appear With Palin at "Victory Rally"
Marco Rubio has agreed to appear with former Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele at his "victory rally" in Orlando on Saturday the 23rd. This is after two Republican candidates from California decided to decline to appear with Palin and Steele due to apparent schedule conflicts. The two GOP candidates are Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina. Whitman is running for Governor in California while Fiorina is running for the Senate. California is a Democratic leaning state in most election years and I believe both Whitman and Fiorina prefer to distance themselves from the very conservative Palin. The two California candidates are trying to get independent and moderate voters at this point in the race.
Palin has helped spearhead the Tea Party movement and was very popular in Florida during the presidential campaigns in 2008. Her speeches and rallies had much better attendance than her running mate John McCain's rallies. The "victory rally" comes at a time when the race in Florida is all but over. Rubio's lead in the polls ranges from 12 to 25 percent. Victory does appear to be inevitable at this point. Appearing with Palin solidifies Rubio as a Tea Party candidate and essentially solidifies his position as a very important Tea Party Senator. Also, if there was any doubt about the final outcome of this election, this is a smart move by Rubio and Palin to make sure Florida voters get out and punch Rubio's name on the ballot.
Palin has helped spearhead the Tea Party movement and was very popular in Florida during the presidential campaigns in 2008. Her speeches and rallies had much better attendance than her running mate John McCain's rallies. The "victory rally" comes at a time when the race in Florida is all but over. Rubio's lead in the polls ranges from 12 to 25 percent. Victory does appear to be inevitable at this point. Appearing with Palin solidifies Rubio as a Tea Party candidate and essentially solidifies his position as a very important Tea Party Senator. Also, if there was any doubt about the final outcome of this election, this is a smart move by Rubio and Palin to make sure Florida voters get out and punch Rubio's name on the ballot.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Meek Says Crist Should Drop Out, Not Him
After the heated televised debate in Orlando last week, new polls show that Marco Rubio now has a two-to-one lead over Charlie Crist. A survey of likely voters showed Rubio with 50% of the vote, Crist with 25%, and Meek at 19%. Just like the Republican Primary, this race has gone from a tight race, to a blowout.
As should be expected in a race where three candidates are fighting each other for votes, there is talk of someone dropping out to make this a closer race. Recently, the person facing the pressure to drop out is Kendrick Meek. With only 19% in the polls, he would be an extreme long shot in the highly unlikely even that Crist were to drop out. I suspect that if Meek dropped out, some of the 19% supporting him would not show up on November 2nd. The rest would likely switch their vote to Crist, who is fairly moderate. This would make it a more interesting race with Crist returning to the mid-30's to low 40's in terms of his support in the polls. If Crist were to drop out, Meek would not take as large of a portion if the situation were reversed. If he took 60% of Crist's votes he would still trail by double digits in the polls.
Meek says he will not drop out because he earned his spot in this race by winning the Democratic primary. He says that Crist on the other hand ran as an independent because he chickened out when he realized he could not win the Republican primary.
In my opinion, neither is likely to drop out of the race. This is good news for Marco Rubio. If no one drops out, he wins this race in a landslide.
Meek Says Crist Should Drop Out
Poll Data
As should be expected in a race where three candidates are fighting each other for votes, there is talk of someone dropping out to make this a closer race. Recently, the person facing the pressure to drop out is Kendrick Meek. With only 19% in the polls, he would be an extreme long shot in the highly unlikely even that Crist were to drop out. I suspect that if Meek dropped out, some of the 19% supporting him would not show up on November 2nd. The rest would likely switch their vote to Crist, who is fairly moderate. This would make it a more interesting race with Crist returning to the mid-30's to low 40's in terms of his support in the polls. If Crist were to drop out, Meek would not take as large of a portion if the situation were reversed. If he took 60% of Crist's votes he would still trail by double digits in the polls.
Meek says he will not drop out because he earned his spot in this race by winning the Democratic primary. He says that Crist on the other hand ran as an independent because he chickened out when he realized he could not win the Republican primary.
In my opinion, neither is likely to drop out of the race. This is good news for Marco Rubio. If no one drops out, he wins this race in a landslide.
Meek Says Crist Should Drop Out
Poll Data
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Showdown in Orlando
Last night, the three candidates met for a debate in Orlando. Each of the candidates repeatedly listed their accomplishments that the other two could not match. With Rubio taking a commanding lead, this is one of the last hopes Crist and Meek had for Marco to make a misstep.
Rubio played it safe and spoke almost exclusively about the his position on the national debt. He avoided all other types of questions. This was likely a strategy to avoid talking about issues that would either dissatisfy the Tea Party supporters or on the other hand, more moderate Republicans. So he chose something he knew everyone would agree on; Fixing the national debt. He successfully managed to steer clear of all other questions by taking shots at Crist's flip flopping on certain issues.
Crist avoided the flip flop accusations and discussed his accomplishments as governor. When doing this he targeted specific demographics. He made comments directed at teachers in which he stated that he vetoed a bill that would have tied their pay to their student's academic performance. He noted that he vetoed a bill requiring women to get ultrasounds, and they he supported Israel as America's ally. Clearly Crist was trying to target women, teachers and the Jewish residents of Miami. All obviously key groups in Florida.
Meek went after Crist by calling him "weak" for not running against Rubio in the primary. The purpose of this was to get Republicans thinking that Crist truly is not someone a Republican should be voting for. Meek also called out Crist for flip flopping. Meek dismissed attacks about he and his mother's shady business dealings with government contracts as attacks against his family. Meek discussed the job market which could be important considering Florida's unemployment rate is 12 percent.
Basically, Rubio avoided anything controversial because he has a large lead. Crist brought up his accomplishments as governor which should be fresh in people's mind (he still has a positive approval rating for his job as governor). Meek went after Crist and spoke of jobs. His strategy of going after Crist much more than Rubio is to get all the Democratic voters of Florida to get back on his side and turn this into a two man race between the parties. Unfortunately, it is far to late for Meek at this point as he trails by 35 points.
Rubio played it safe and spoke almost exclusively about the his position on the national debt. He avoided all other types of questions. This was likely a strategy to avoid talking about issues that would either dissatisfy the Tea Party supporters or on the other hand, more moderate Republicans. So he chose something he knew everyone would agree on; Fixing the national debt. He successfully managed to steer clear of all other questions by taking shots at Crist's flip flopping on certain issues.
Crist avoided the flip flop accusations and discussed his accomplishments as governor. When doing this he targeted specific demographics. He made comments directed at teachers in which he stated that he vetoed a bill that would have tied their pay to their student's academic performance. He noted that he vetoed a bill requiring women to get ultrasounds, and they he supported Israel as America's ally. Clearly Crist was trying to target women, teachers and the Jewish residents of Miami. All obviously key groups in Florida.
Meek went after Crist by calling him "weak" for not running against Rubio in the primary. The purpose of this was to get Republicans thinking that Crist truly is not someone a Republican should be voting for. Meek also called out Crist for flip flopping. Meek dismissed attacks about he and his mother's shady business dealings with government contracts as attacks against his family. Meek discussed the job market which could be important considering Florida's unemployment rate is 12 percent.
Basically, Rubio avoided anything controversial because he has a large lead. Crist brought up his accomplishments as governor which should be fresh in people's mind (he still has a positive approval rating for his job as governor). Meek went after Crist and spoke of jobs. His strategy of going after Crist much more than Rubio is to get all the Democratic voters of Florida to get back on his side and turn this into a two man race between the parties. Unfortunately, it is far to late for Meek at this point as he trails by 35 points.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Crist Goes on the Attack
Previously, Charlie Crist has said that he would like to avoid personal attacks in his campaign ads. On September 24th Crist came out with this ad attacking Rubio and Meek. The ad was circulating before Friday, but had not yet been released by the Crist campaign. The ad accuses Rubio of using party money and credit cards to fund personal expenses (Florida Republicans say he paid the party back out of his own pocket at a later date). The ad then turns to Meek, claiming that he steered government contracts to an "indicted developer who then hired Meek's mother and even bought her a Cadillac."
Meek then released the attack ad against him on his own Youtube account before Crist put the ad on the air. A strange strategy indeed. Meek then put out a press release calling out Crist. I think the reasoning for this was to release the ad before Crist could so that Meek could call him out on his "Republican-style smear ad" ahead of time. Whether this strategy will work or not remains to be seen. The Meek campaign's press release contained this heated paragraph:
"After 5 months of obscuring his lifelong conservative record as a “no party affiliated” candidate, Crist has been unable to chip away the democratic votes he needs to win while Kendrick has consolidated his base. Now, the governor is using the most cynical and desperate Republican attacks to stop the bleeding."
Meek's camp is calling out the Republican Party and Crist at the same time. I think this is his obvious attempt to simultaneously call out Rubio and Crist at the same time as he falls further back in the polls. This is a risky move by Meek, but I guess when you are down 25 points in the polls you'll try anything. Meek did not attempt to actually refute the claims leveled in the ad.
A 527 group tied to Crist also came out with an attack on Rubio as being ‘soft’ on illegal immigration. A letter was mailed around saying that Rubio had voted to allow children of illegal immigrants to get handouts when attending school when he was the Speaker of the House. However, the aforementioned legislation died in congress. Rubio needs to be careful; He is walking a fine line to please Tea Party Republicans who believe everyone should speak English and are for very strict immigration laws. At the same time he must still keep the support of Cuban-Americans who are still very pro-immigration.
Meek then released the attack ad against him on his own Youtube account before Crist put the ad on the air. A strange strategy indeed. Meek then put out a press release calling out Crist. I think the reasoning for this was to release the ad before Crist could so that Meek could call him out on his "Republican-style smear ad" ahead of time. Whether this strategy will work or not remains to be seen. The Meek campaign's press release contained this heated paragraph:
"After 5 months of obscuring his lifelong conservative record as a “no party affiliated” candidate, Crist has been unable to chip away the democratic votes he needs to win while Kendrick has consolidated his base. Now, the governor is using the most cynical and desperate Republican attacks to stop the bleeding."
Meek's camp is calling out the Republican Party and Crist at the same time. I think this is his obvious attempt to simultaneously call out Rubio and Crist at the same time as he falls further back in the polls. This is a risky move by Meek, but I guess when you are down 25 points in the polls you'll try anything. Meek did not attempt to actually refute the claims leveled in the ad.
A 527 group tied to Crist also came out with an attack on Rubio as being ‘soft’ on illegal immigration. A letter was mailed around saying that Rubio had voted to allow children of illegal immigrants to get handouts when attending school when he was the Speaker of the House. However, the aforementioned legislation died in congress. Rubio needs to be careful; He is walking a fine line to please Tea Party Republicans who believe everyone should speak English and are for very strict immigration laws. At the same time he must still keep the support of Cuban-Americans who are still very pro-immigration.
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