As expected Marco Rubio will be the next senator from the State of Florida.
Rubio Victory Speech
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Why Rubio Will Win Tomorrow
It was clear long before the August 24th Republican primary in Florida that the race would be between Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio for the Republican nomination. What wasn't expected (by Crist or anyone else) was Rubio taking a huge lead in the primary forcing Crist to drop out and run as an independent. Once Rubio had won the primary and the campaigning for the election began, the race between Rubio and Crist once again started as a close one. Only two weeks after Rubio won the Republican Primary in a rout, Crist was only trailing by 2 points in the polls. However, just as the Republican primary went, so did the polls for the general election. Rubio eventually jumped out to the estimated 17 point lead that he is currently in today. Meek took the strong liberal voters and Rubio took the strong conservatives (and probably many that simply lean Republican) leaving Crist with the remaining 30 percent of the vote in the polls. This put Rubio near 50 percent.
In Florida, a state with 11 percent unemployment, a number that has gotten worse since Obama took office in 2008, the citizens are not fond of the president and the rest of the Democrats. They have definitely latched onto the anti-establishment, tax-free Tea Party movement. When things are going this bad, people will often decide to go in the exact opposite direction. In this case, that would be Marco Rubio and the Republicans (backed by the Tea Party movement). As we have learned, mid-term elections often cause a shift in party power. We can refer to this year's shift as a "referendum" on President Obama and his Democratic Party. The electorate clearly feels that the President and Democrats have not done an adequate job since they took power in 2008.
Once Marco Rubio took the lead by touting the Tea Party mentality, he backed out of the spotlight. He had such a lead that he was able just to sit back and watch Crist and Meek struggle to attack him. Meek lost his credibility in Florida for even being associated with the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Crist stumbled along trying to paint himself as an independent even though he was a member of the Republican Party just months earlier. He was seen as an inconsistent, flip-flopping traitor. This did not sit well with conservative Republicans. It's clear that he will take some Democratic votes from Meek and some of the more moderate Republicans. However, with the anti-establishment sentiment in Florida, it is unlikely Crist will get much (if any) support from conservative Republicans. While Crist and Meek attacked each other as well as Rubio, their Republican challenger was able to sit back and talk about all the good things about himself, seeing as he had and has a very large lead. This strategy has a long history of working once a candidate takes a large lead, leaving his opponents to begin transparent mudslinging campaigns.
Crist might have had a chance if one of the other candidates dropped out of the race. Obviously Rubio was never going to drop out with a huge lead, so that would leave Kendrick Meek. There was talk that former President Clinton was trying to broker a deal with Meek to drop out of the race to give Crist a chance. However, Clinton and Meek both later denied the claim. If Meek were to drop out, a majority of Meek's votes would likely head toward Crist, giving him a large boost on election day. We can only speculate how that would turn out as Meek chose to stay in the race and essentially give the election to Rubio. There is a chance that some of Meek's supporters have realized he has no chance and may instead vote for Crist, but even if this happened, Crist would not receive enough votes to come close to Rubio.
Unless Marco Rubio is arrested in the next several hours, he will be the next U.S. Senator from Florida.
Correction: Unless Marco Rubio is arrested for a felony.
Good luck to all the candidates and thanks for reading.
Get out and vote!
In Florida, a state with 11 percent unemployment, a number that has gotten worse since Obama took office in 2008, the citizens are not fond of the president and the rest of the Democrats. They have definitely latched onto the anti-establishment, tax-free Tea Party movement. When things are going this bad, people will often decide to go in the exact opposite direction. In this case, that would be Marco Rubio and the Republicans (backed by the Tea Party movement). As we have learned, mid-term elections often cause a shift in party power. We can refer to this year's shift as a "referendum" on President Obama and his Democratic Party. The electorate clearly feels that the President and Democrats have not done an adequate job since they took power in 2008.
Once Marco Rubio took the lead by touting the Tea Party mentality, he backed out of the spotlight. He had such a lead that he was able just to sit back and watch Crist and Meek struggle to attack him. Meek lost his credibility in Florida for even being associated with the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Crist stumbled along trying to paint himself as an independent even though he was a member of the Republican Party just months earlier. He was seen as an inconsistent, flip-flopping traitor. This did not sit well with conservative Republicans. It's clear that he will take some Democratic votes from Meek and some of the more moderate Republicans. However, with the anti-establishment sentiment in Florida, it is unlikely Crist will get much (if any) support from conservative Republicans. While Crist and Meek attacked each other as well as Rubio, their Republican challenger was able to sit back and talk about all the good things about himself, seeing as he had and has a very large lead. This strategy has a long history of working once a candidate takes a large lead, leaving his opponents to begin transparent mudslinging campaigns.
Crist might have had a chance if one of the other candidates dropped out of the race. Obviously Rubio was never going to drop out with a huge lead, so that would leave Kendrick Meek. There was talk that former President Clinton was trying to broker a deal with Meek to drop out of the race to give Crist a chance. However, Clinton and Meek both later denied the claim. If Meek were to drop out, a majority of Meek's votes would likely head toward Crist, giving him a large boost on election day. We can only speculate how that would turn out as Meek chose to stay in the race and essentially give the election to Rubio. There is a chance that some of Meek's supporters have realized he has no chance and may instead vote for Crist, but even if this happened, Crist would not receive enough votes to come close to Rubio.
Unless Marco Rubio is arrested in the next several hours, he will be the next U.S. Senator from Florida.
Correction: Unless Marco Rubio is arrested for a felony.
Good luck to all the candidates and thanks for reading.
Get out and vote!
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