Rubio continues to maintain his 11 point lead in the polls over Charlie Crist. Republicans are so confident that he will win that they have pulled $4 million intended for campaigning in Florida and moved it elsewhere. The three senators had yet another debate Sunday. The debate was characterized as Meek and Crist ganging up on Rubio. However, Rubio maintained and defended his stances on issues and looked like the confident winner.
If Rubio manages to win the election on November 2nd, it brings up an interesting question for Republicans: Where does he go from here? Rubio is a young (and he looks it), up-and-coming Tea Party-backed star for the Republican Party. Oh, and one other little thing, he's Hispanic. In a party that lacks any significant Hispanic figures, he could be a key piece down the road. There have been rumblings of him running for president one day, but first he actually has to win over the Hispanic voters. He is largely supported by Cuban-American voters who are historically conservative. However his support of the Arizona immigration law has risen eyebrows of Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans who are usually against the law and typically vote Democratic. Rubio is the son of legal Cuban immigrants and believes the U.S. must be more strict on illegal immigration.
Rubio is quoted as saying, “I am the only candidate who understands Hispanics. People who criticize me do not understand that for this community, economic progress is the top issue, and what any parent wants for their children is for them to do better than they did."
As with any Tea Party backed candidate, he is hearing the calls of "far-right" and "ultraconservative". If the Republican Party sees him as a plausible future presidential candidate, Rubio must shake these labels so he can appeal to independent, more moderate voters.
Along those lines, he made this statement: "My ideas are the same as those of most people in this country, who see that the economy is not growing, who are having to spend more money than they have, and they want the United States to be the most powerful country in the world because that way, the world is a safer place."
Marco Rubio's Star Rises
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Rubio Will Appear With Palin at "Victory Rally"
Marco Rubio has agreed to appear with former Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele at his "victory rally" in Orlando on Saturday the 23rd. This is after two Republican candidates from California decided to decline to appear with Palin and Steele due to apparent schedule conflicts. The two GOP candidates are Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina. Whitman is running for Governor in California while Fiorina is running for the Senate. California is a Democratic leaning state in most election years and I believe both Whitman and Fiorina prefer to distance themselves from the very conservative Palin. The two California candidates are trying to get independent and moderate voters at this point in the race.
Palin has helped spearhead the Tea Party movement and was very popular in Florida during the presidential campaigns in 2008. Her speeches and rallies had much better attendance than her running mate John McCain's rallies. The "victory rally" comes at a time when the race in Florida is all but over. Rubio's lead in the polls ranges from 12 to 25 percent. Victory does appear to be inevitable at this point. Appearing with Palin solidifies Rubio as a Tea Party candidate and essentially solidifies his position as a very important Tea Party Senator. Also, if there was any doubt about the final outcome of this election, this is a smart move by Rubio and Palin to make sure Florida voters get out and punch Rubio's name on the ballot.
Palin has helped spearhead the Tea Party movement and was very popular in Florida during the presidential campaigns in 2008. Her speeches and rallies had much better attendance than her running mate John McCain's rallies. The "victory rally" comes at a time when the race in Florida is all but over. Rubio's lead in the polls ranges from 12 to 25 percent. Victory does appear to be inevitable at this point. Appearing with Palin solidifies Rubio as a Tea Party candidate and essentially solidifies his position as a very important Tea Party Senator. Also, if there was any doubt about the final outcome of this election, this is a smart move by Rubio and Palin to make sure Florida voters get out and punch Rubio's name on the ballot.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Meek Says Crist Should Drop Out, Not Him
After the heated televised debate in Orlando last week, new polls show that Marco Rubio now has a two-to-one lead over Charlie Crist. A survey of likely voters showed Rubio with 50% of the vote, Crist with 25%, and Meek at 19%. Just like the Republican Primary, this race has gone from a tight race, to a blowout.
As should be expected in a race where three candidates are fighting each other for votes, there is talk of someone dropping out to make this a closer race. Recently, the person facing the pressure to drop out is Kendrick Meek. With only 19% in the polls, he would be an extreme long shot in the highly unlikely even that Crist were to drop out. I suspect that if Meek dropped out, some of the 19% supporting him would not show up on November 2nd. The rest would likely switch their vote to Crist, who is fairly moderate. This would make it a more interesting race with Crist returning to the mid-30's to low 40's in terms of his support in the polls. If Crist were to drop out, Meek would not take as large of a portion if the situation were reversed. If he took 60% of Crist's votes he would still trail by double digits in the polls.
Meek says he will not drop out because he earned his spot in this race by winning the Democratic primary. He says that Crist on the other hand ran as an independent because he chickened out when he realized he could not win the Republican primary.
In my opinion, neither is likely to drop out of the race. This is good news for Marco Rubio. If no one drops out, he wins this race in a landslide.
Meek Says Crist Should Drop Out
Poll Data
As should be expected in a race where three candidates are fighting each other for votes, there is talk of someone dropping out to make this a closer race. Recently, the person facing the pressure to drop out is Kendrick Meek. With only 19% in the polls, he would be an extreme long shot in the highly unlikely even that Crist were to drop out. I suspect that if Meek dropped out, some of the 19% supporting him would not show up on November 2nd. The rest would likely switch their vote to Crist, who is fairly moderate. This would make it a more interesting race with Crist returning to the mid-30's to low 40's in terms of his support in the polls. If Crist were to drop out, Meek would not take as large of a portion if the situation were reversed. If he took 60% of Crist's votes he would still trail by double digits in the polls.
Meek says he will not drop out because he earned his spot in this race by winning the Democratic primary. He says that Crist on the other hand ran as an independent because he chickened out when he realized he could not win the Republican primary.
In my opinion, neither is likely to drop out of the race. This is good news for Marco Rubio. If no one drops out, he wins this race in a landslide.
Meek Says Crist Should Drop Out
Poll Data
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Showdown in Orlando
Last night, the three candidates met for a debate in Orlando. Each of the candidates repeatedly listed their accomplishments that the other two could not match. With Rubio taking a commanding lead, this is one of the last hopes Crist and Meek had for Marco to make a misstep.
Rubio played it safe and spoke almost exclusively about the his position on the national debt. He avoided all other types of questions. This was likely a strategy to avoid talking about issues that would either dissatisfy the Tea Party supporters or on the other hand, more moderate Republicans. So he chose something he knew everyone would agree on; Fixing the national debt. He successfully managed to steer clear of all other questions by taking shots at Crist's flip flopping on certain issues.
Crist avoided the flip flop accusations and discussed his accomplishments as governor. When doing this he targeted specific demographics. He made comments directed at teachers in which he stated that he vetoed a bill that would have tied their pay to their student's academic performance. He noted that he vetoed a bill requiring women to get ultrasounds, and they he supported Israel as America's ally. Clearly Crist was trying to target women, teachers and the Jewish residents of Miami. All obviously key groups in Florida.
Meek went after Crist by calling him "weak" for not running against Rubio in the primary. The purpose of this was to get Republicans thinking that Crist truly is not someone a Republican should be voting for. Meek also called out Crist for flip flopping. Meek dismissed attacks about he and his mother's shady business dealings with government contracts as attacks against his family. Meek discussed the job market which could be important considering Florida's unemployment rate is 12 percent.
Basically, Rubio avoided anything controversial because he has a large lead. Crist brought up his accomplishments as governor which should be fresh in people's mind (he still has a positive approval rating for his job as governor). Meek went after Crist and spoke of jobs. His strategy of going after Crist much more than Rubio is to get all the Democratic voters of Florida to get back on his side and turn this into a two man race between the parties. Unfortunately, it is far to late for Meek at this point as he trails by 35 points.
Rubio played it safe and spoke almost exclusively about the his position on the national debt. He avoided all other types of questions. This was likely a strategy to avoid talking about issues that would either dissatisfy the Tea Party supporters or on the other hand, more moderate Republicans. So he chose something he knew everyone would agree on; Fixing the national debt. He successfully managed to steer clear of all other questions by taking shots at Crist's flip flopping on certain issues.
Crist avoided the flip flop accusations and discussed his accomplishments as governor. When doing this he targeted specific demographics. He made comments directed at teachers in which he stated that he vetoed a bill that would have tied their pay to their student's academic performance. He noted that he vetoed a bill requiring women to get ultrasounds, and they he supported Israel as America's ally. Clearly Crist was trying to target women, teachers and the Jewish residents of Miami. All obviously key groups in Florida.
Meek went after Crist by calling him "weak" for not running against Rubio in the primary. The purpose of this was to get Republicans thinking that Crist truly is not someone a Republican should be voting for. Meek also called out Crist for flip flopping. Meek dismissed attacks about he and his mother's shady business dealings with government contracts as attacks against his family. Meek discussed the job market which could be important considering Florida's unemployment rate is 12 percent.
Basically, Rubio avoided anything controversial because he has a large lead. Crist brought up his accomplishments as governor which should be fresh in people's mind (he still has a positive approval rating for his job as governor). Meek went after Crist and spoke of jobs. His strategy of going after Crist much more than Rubio is to get all the Democratic voters of Florida to get back on his side and turn this into a two man race between the parties. Unfortunately, it is far to late for Meek at this point as he trails by 35 points.
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